The Darker Side Of Analytics

I recently read an article in one of the major Dutch newspapers (warning - it's in Dutch!) about their Government's moves to prevent crime by profiling citizens. The announcement was made by the Minister Of Justice and, not surprisingly, it has caused some discussion within The Netherlands. I wonder what the reaction in Australia would be if the Federal Government announced that all Australians were to be profiled?

Here's what the Dutch Government is proposing:

• using 'digital techniques' (whatever they are) to create profiles of people
• initially this will consist of information on: 
• • banking 
  • flight 
  • internet use 
• citizen profiles will then be compared to profiles of convicted criminals
• if/when a match is found, government officials will be sent and email or sms alerting them of this 'fact'. 

The example use quoted by the minister is for a very worthy cause: preventing pedophiles from traveling to countries where child prostitution occurs.

But if you look at the wider picture: wow, the implications are serious and widespread!

I wonder how many times their 'digital techniques' will create false positives and (presumably) false information being sent out?

I remember a situation some years ago when I owned a company in Silicon Valley and still lived in Amsterdam. I was traveling very regularly between the two places and I was profiled by US Customs solely on the basis that Amsterdam is famous for tulips and a couple of more seedy chemical habits. The conversations were pleasant and short-lived - but I would hate to be having similar conversations if, say, my next business was in Bangkok and my own Government was telling a foreign country "watch out" for this guy simply because I had a pattern of travel to Thailand that was similar to some disgusting criminal who had served time in The Netherlands!

It couldn't happen, could it?

Comments

[dthogynrl]

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[Honami]

in one place, on one post. Here are two examples I did that many plopee told me they appreciated: On Bookmarking: Social ROI and Analytics and 51 Things to Blog About. Did they take me a while to research and write? Yes! But did it

[Pari]

You hit the nail on the head when you said the purpose is to get pelpoe to your site, not blab about yourself AKA DRIVE TRAFFIC, not direct sales.I find it interesting that despite it's popularity, pelpoe still have such a hard time determining actual ROI effectiveness from the use of Social Media. And rightfully so. It's not because its not effective, it's because too many self-proclaimed experts still really do not understand it and rely on it to do all the work for them.As an ADman myself, ALL media is social. FB, Twitter, YouTube, are just amazing new mediums for this, not some new magical thing that makes things happen on its own virtue. If all a CMO has in their pocket is that they know how to make a FB post and read modern metrics, they are in trouble. You need to UNDERSTAND trends, and develop comprehensive strategies, not just read numbers.Too many focus on LIKES as a means to more direct sales. It simply is not the magic bullet many marketer would like it to be (or try to convince their bosses it is). 10,000 Likes simply does not equate to a logarithmic increase in sales. I see this over and over at my agency. Too many clients think they can directly increase revenue by increasing the number of likes on thier site. This simply is not the case if you have no other strategy, a disjointed strategy or if your product/customer service is not up to expectations.How many times have we seen the phrase Like us to enter to win. Of course pelpoe may like you FB page if it enters them for a chance to win $250,000. It still does not mean that individual will buy your product or is even in the market for your services. This only makes the LIKE function that much more irrelevant as a direct tool, and the general population knows this on a basic level. Personally, I do not rely on the number of LIKES on a FB to tell me how good a particular product is. It no different that a real person giving you $100 to tell someone else they are a good guy. Its only works temporarily, so you need to take advantage of that time.With that being said, of course there is a real psychological impact of a company with a good number of likes. And having many likes and followers will have an overall impact on your position in the market, and as such cannot be ignored by any means.GO LUNA!

[Krasimir]

HEY MrsC!!There is a dot on the clustrmap from Russia now! That sulhod fill up the russian part of the map in green!Cool.I also think that the ClustrMap sulhod say how many hits there are from each place. Not just a 10-99 siaed dot or things like that. If it could do that it would be heaps better! Anyway, gotta go!Bye bye!From Cointha

[SninD]

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[Will Dwinnell]

Whether and how predictive analysis represents a threat depends entirely on the nature and context of their use.

Whether data mining and statistics could ever be usefully and fairly applied to the direct identification of individuals as criminals or terrorists remains, in my mind, an open question.

On the other hand, I believe that most people would regard the monitoring of business activities and transactions for illegal activity, such as money laundering, as a mostly beneficial thing. Such monitoring often includes data mining. Note that money laundering is an important source of funding for some criminal and terrorist organizations.

[OzAnalytics]

James , I agree. Perhaps my main worries are twofold:

1. That most people accept analytics as unbiased when we know that they are only as good and unbiased as the analysts who created them. Bias can be introduced though deliberate means (take a look at the 'data' produced by most lobbyists) or simple ignorance of your craft.

2. Analytics does what you suggest - it swings attention from racial prejudices ('against the Indian with a beard' you mention in your blog) and focusses in on the white guy - me! How unfair ;-)

Thanks for commenting - I've been lurking around your blog for some months and enjoy it very much. Smart (Enough) Systems? Already has a proud place in my library!

Steve

[James Taylor]

Interesting post. I think analytics are ethically neutral (as I discuss in http://www.b-eye-network.com/blogs/taylor/archives/2009/07/oz_analytics_-_the_darker_side_of_analytics.php) and the risk is the risk of personal bias with or without analytics
JT

Author, with Neil Raden, of Smart (Enough) Systems
http://jtonedm.com

[OzAnalytics]

Good points.

Also, what the state publicly declares it is doing is not always matched by what is happening secretly. Just look back at Australian Government declarations about the Echelon signals intelligence network for proof.

Perhaps I should be arguing for more sophisticated profiling which wouldn't mistake my behaviour for that of a criminal?

Of course overall that will never be achieved as there will always be assumptions made during profiling that lead to incorrect matches.

Thanks for posting, they always make me think further.

[James Beresford]

It is not only inevitable, I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if it is already happening.

Semi-consciously security officers have been doing their own predictive modelling in terms of who to keep an eye on - by race, sex, behaviour - it should come as no surprise that as the systems get bigger, these decisions are analysed and formalised.

Of course, you are arguing from the perspective that as an individual you act and behave uniquely - which is a false assumption. Human behaviour is often surprisingly predictable, and criminals are not always the brightest and will often act in simple, easy to spot ways.

The scary element of this activity is not that you might get unwanted attention from the state - but what behaviours the state defines as criminal.